As much as the GSFA Primates also want to keep the unity of the visible Church and the fabric of the Anglican Communion, our calling to be 'a holy remnant' does not allow us to be "in communion" with those provinces that have departed from the historic faith and taken the path of false teaching.

This particular fissure runs along the line dividing the West from the global south of Africa and Asia, which for England corresponds to the boundary between former colonizers and colonized. Reasons for the schism are thus not merely superficial cultural differences, but run deep into civilizational bedrock.

Likewise, in the Catholic Church the bond of ecclesial communion is wearing thin. Former whispers of heresy and schism, especially in Germany, have become open warnings by bishops and cardinals. In his final cri de cœur, the late Cardinal Pell used similar language as the African and Asian primates of the former Anglican communion.

The synods have to choose whether they are servants and defenders of the apostolic tradition on faith and morals, or whether their discernment compels them to assert their sovereignty over Catholic teaching.

Fault lines

The situation is serious, and believers and non-believers alike should pay attention. The world is still reeling from the large quakes of the years 1056 and 1521 and the ensuing rifts that divided Europe between east and west, north and south. Importantly, after doctrinal and social common ground is rejected, violence is not far away, as illustrated by the Thirty Years' War that came in the wake of the Reformation. Similar lines of conflict run through the Balkans and Northern Ireland. And Ukraine is, in a sense, located on the intersection of civilizational fault lines. Because of this some consider the current war a conflict of values and worldviews about what is considered sacred. In this framework, room for compromise is negligible and conflicts take on an eschatological character.

Maybe some among believers and non-believers doubt that religious schisms have serious cultural and political consequences, and instead think the relation is mostly the other way round. This would mean that ISIS was the reflection of underlying material and social factors in Iraq and Syria and not primarily the result of a religious ideology that promotes extreme terror. I find that hard to believe, and the increasing attention to radicalization as a problem indicates a growing awareness that religious ideas indeed have consequences.

Still, most people do not pay attention or do not consider a split in the Catholic Church in the style of the Anglican communion as especially troubling. The underlying but mostly implicit idea of such a stance is that modernity moves forward to ever higher levels of enlightenment and freedom. In the march of progress, there will always be resistant minorities, but those on the wrong side of history will dwindle into small, dissatisfied subcultures of no real significance. One example of this are the former Lutheran state churches in the Nordic countries in which the conservative believers are few, harmless, and marginalized.

The sceptic might also claim that the inevitable processes of secularization and dechristianization mean that ecclesial schisms do not affect the nation or the world as it did in previous centuries. The struggle in the Catholic Church between those wanting to modernize its moral theology and those resisting will stay merely an internal ecclesial affair. A worldwide split within the Catholic Church would be just one more religious division, even though it concerns the largest religious organization on earth. After all, such fractures happen all the time in protestant denominations, so why should we bother?

Moreover, perhaps the German bishops do not want to affect a schism but have decided to push hard to see how far the Vatican is prepared to give in. And, in distinction to the Anglican churches, the Catholic Church has such a strong, centralized structure that even if the whole German church decides to be "Catholic in a different way," many comfort themselves with the hope that this could remain a local phenomenon that would not affect the universal church.

The Anglican case, however, points toward the global and fundamental nature of the divisive moral questions relating to the family presently under renegotiation. The arguments that the Catholic Church somehow would be insulated from these seismic rifts makes little historical sense considering previous major quakes. For example, the Catholic Church more or less disappeared from the Nordic countries for several hundred years. Moreover, reports are appearing weekly of bishops and cardinals positioning themselves on either side of the widening crack, while the Church is at the same time heading into the final phase of a worldwide synodal process that seems designed to release that pent-up energy. Consequently, the evidence indicates that a new Great Schism is increasingly probable.

Civilizational consequences

The second objection that downplays the seriousness of a possible schism fails to grasp the fundamental nature of sexual morality and the family. After all, society depends on these institutions and is formed by them. It is not merely a question of marginal adjustments; the strife is about sacred principles that do not easily allow for compromises.

Moreover, if a global split takes place in the Catholic Church, both sides of the rift will radicalize. Their principles will become clearer while strategic compromises and unclear language will decrease. It should not come as a surprise if, as during the Reformation, combative words are exchanged. In the West, the new mainline Catholic Church will no longer face interior obstacles toward further modernization, while the conservative minority will have to endure both secular and religious contempt and probably persecution. This will boost social polarization in many nations, at least those with Catholic majorities. To state that this is just an internal ecclesial affair is to misunderstand the importance of religion. The most fundamental ideas are religious in the sense that they decide what is holy, sacred, and inviolable.

As with the Anglican church, a factor that complicates the conflict is that in some countries the balance is inverted and the traditional position is dominant. Conservative social values dominate many non-Western societies and are, therefore, politically significant. The West's liberated sexual 'morality' is marginalized and even in some respects criminalized. Hence, a decisive schism in the Catholic Church would ripple through global society and reinforce other cultural and political divisions. The church will not cease to be universal, but it is likely there will be two opposing universal churches, one modernist and one anti-modernist, similar to the opposing camps of antagonistic popes in 14th-century Europe. Accordingly, the GSFA churches have not merely seceded from the Anglican communion led by the Archbishop of Canterbury, but are creating a new worldwide communion.

The situation is serious, irrespective of one's views on central religious questions. The civilizational stakes are high. Whatever the results of the present clash between those fighting to preserve the faith and morals of Christian tradition or those working hard to modernize it in accordance with liberal principles, the possible fracturing of the Catholic Church will have significant cultural, social, and political consequences. What previously was restrained and mollified by ambiguous formulas, conciliatory phrases, and fear of ostracism will erupt as radically different universal paths that no longer walk together.

Similar to an earthquake, the ground might at present seem solid and peaceful, but underneath the surface enormous stress is built up along the dominant fault line stretching through continents and communities; and when the accumulated energy is suddenly released a new configuration will be established in an instant. However, it will also bring about large-scale devastation. Some look forward to this parting of ways as a split that will provide clarity and ensure that former compromises will fade away. Yet it is important to remember that when civilizations fracture around what is sacred, the result is a new world order built on the remnants of the former. This is the lesson to be learned when contemplating the ruins of once vast and imposing palaces and cathedrals, the seats of bishops, kings, and emperors.

Pater sancte, sic transit gloria mundi.

Clemens Cavallin is professor of Christianity, religion, philosophies of life, and ethics at NLA University College, Bergen.