In his blog (Anselmic's Place) The Rev. Lee Proudlove, a CMS Mission Partner in CEBU, said that the figures are "worrying at least for the future of the Church of England."

Each year on the same Sunday, every parish counts how many people there are "in the pews." Naturally, membership and regular attendance numbers are different, but it is a good guide to the health of the church and enables comparison of trends across the years. Recently, the method of collecting this was changed slightly. Now an average is taken across four Sundays for greater accuracy, but it doesn't make much difference in the numbers.

Since 1968, the record of Usual Sunday Attendance has gone from 1.6 million to something less than 900,000 in 2005. In 2006 the attendance is down just -1.14% from 2005.

In the 1970's, the church lost about 30,000 members per year. In the 80's, it decelerated to around 10,000 members per year. In the 90's, the loss was around 10,000 members per year.

In the 35 years from 1971 to 2006, the Church of England has declined by 43.5%. It has just about halved in terms of its Sunday attendance.

Church attendance has been declining as the population of England has been growing. The latest edition of "'Population Trends"' has revised figures for the population of England based on more accurate fertility rates and taking into account the latest figures on immigration. Based on this report, the Church of England has been shrinking little by little over the last 35 years while the population of England has been growing little by little.

In the 35 years from 1971 to 2006, the Population of England has grown by 9.37% that is about a tenth.

The chart reveals that the growth in population has been relatively steady, as has the decline in attendance in the Church of England. Neither of these two trends could realistically be dismissed as "blips" or "uncharacteristic".Both should give serious pause for thought to everyone concerned about the life, vitality, and future of the Church of England, says Proudlove.

What about the future?

If the predictions are accurate, in the next 15 years the English population will have grown by 12% while the church will have declined by another 230,000 people (26%). To compare with the baseline of 1970/1, by 2031 the population will have grown by 30% and the Church of England declined by 65%.

The ratio of Anglicans to the rest of the English population looks like this:

1970 - 1 in 30 were in the Church of England on a Sunday

1986 - 1 in 40 were in the Church of England on a Sunday

2006 - 1 in 60 were in the Church of England on a Sunday

2031 - 1 in 120 will be in the Church of England on a Sunday

The evidence is that not only are fewer people attending the Church of England, but those who do are becoming increasingly gray. While there are no Anglican age specific figures, the Christian Research Organization (CRO) has compiled figures across the denominations of the UK. These reveal that UK church goers are disproportionately made up of people in their later years.

The 2005 English church census revealed that 29% of the UK church was 65 and over, as opposed to around 17% of the population. CRO predicts, that by 2025, 50% of the church will be over 65, and that by 2050, (only 44 years away) just 3% of the church will be under 30 years of age. If what is true for the UK church at large, in terms of demographic spread, is true for the Church of England, specifically, then the rate of decline is likely to accelerate in the coming years as opposed to maintaining a modest decline of 2% per year on which the above predictions are based.

From the Christian Research Organization, "...the key strategic priority which emerges from this analysis is the crucial need to engage with children and young people now. That need was already known, but with 33% of church goers under 30 in 2000 reducing to just 11% by 2025 and 3% by 2050 it sounds the death knell of the church...the numbers going to church in 2050 will be decided by what happens between now and 2018. The next 10 years are key."

Is this the death knell of the Church of England or is it a wake-up call for bishops and clergy to re-examine both evangelism and new methods to reach another generation for Christ? A cursory glance at these figures reveals that the Church of England is following the bell curve of the American Episcopal Church which is seeing more than a 1000 per week depart its pews as revisionist teaching and the acceptance of pansexual behavior decimates churches.

Grace Davie, Professor of Sociology and Director of the Centre for European Studies at Exeter University, comments, "What is clear is that the church will change in both nature and attendance: from a situation in which significant numbers attend out of duty or obligation to one in which the great majority are there by choice. Contracting out is replaced by contracting in. Interestingly - within the voluntary sector - rather more people contract into churches than into their secular equivalents."

"One thing is certain the necessary steps will not be taken to address this decline until we acknowledge the full scale of the shrinking Church of England. Whenever the figures these figures are published there is understandably a desire on the part of the leaders of the church to put the best face on some admittedly grim statistics," Davie added.

By contrast, the Global South continues to grow by leaps and bounds. Last week, the Anglican Province of Nigeria consecrated 20 new (not replacement) bishops.

In the province of Nnewi, they created eighteen new missionary dioceses and one fully fledged diocese and then elected twenty (20) new bishops to serve these new jurisdictions. All of the resources to start these new dioceses - a Cathedral for the people - and a car, house and the first year's stipend for the Bishop and his family are already in the bank, noted US-CANA bishop Martyn Minns who was there for the occasion.

"Members of the Church of Nigeria and their friends have given all of it because they have a passion to share the Gospel. For the record, the seventeen missionary dioceses they created last year have already planted more than three hundred congregations and no one seems surprised," he wrote.

Such a "passion" is lost in the US Episcopal Church and the Church of England. Western liberal Anglicanism is bankrupt and is dying. It has no heart to press the exclusive claims of Jesus Christ on the lives of people. Episcopalians are too embarrassed by such exclusivity, preferring the broad road of inclusivity that is leading further and further away from historic Christianity.

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