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Welby bids to defuse Church of England's 'demographic time bomb'

Welby bids to defuse Church of England's 'demographic time bomb'
Divisions on ways to modernise an ageing church will trouble the new synod
Archbishop Justin Welby initiated the modernisation plan

http://www.theguardian.com/
November 22, 2015

Discord over a radical programme to make the Church of England "fit for purpose" in the 21st century is set to spill into the open this week when the new synod meets at the start of its five-year term.

The Reform and Renewal programme was initiated by the archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby, and is being enthusiastically driven forward by a cohort of senior figures who share his zeal for modernising and evangelising the church.

However, critics fear that traditional values could be lost amid the speed of change, lack of consultation and a new culture of setting goals and targets. "Some of those driving the Reform and Renewal agenda don't seem to understand the complex nature of the institution they are seeking to improve. In trying to change the church, there is a significant risk of unintentional vandalism," said Martyn Percy, dean of Christ Church, Oxford.

The programme -- which includes the redistribution of financial resources, training and education, and simplifying the arcane governance of the church -- springs from alarm at the steady decline of congregations over recent decades.

"We're in the last chance saloon," said Pete Broadbent, bishop of Willesden and one of the architects of Reform and Renewal. "All the demographic evidence shows that, unless we do something in the next five or 10 years, we're shot. There are those who say this [programme] is alien and who want to dig their heels in, but we're facing a demographic time bomb."

The evidence was "indisputable", said John Spence, chair of the church's finance committee and a former Lloyds Bank executive. "Twenty years ago the demographics matched the population as a whole. Now we're 20 years older than the population. Unless we do something, the church will face a real crisis."

Among the changes is a redistribution of funding, largely away from struggling rural parishes to churches in deprived urban areas and those seen as innovative and energetic in adapting to social change.

"Some dioceses are being funded to do not very much," said Broadbent. "And some dioceses are underfunded, but are doing an amazing job in trying circumstances. It's about how we divvy up the money to go to places that can use it well and have the greatest need."

Another key area is recruitment and training. Around 40% of the church's clergy will retire in the next decade, yet fewer people are putting themselves forward for ordination. The church needs to attract recruits, especially those described by Spence as "game changers", and provide accelerated career paths and appropriate training.

The selection of a "talent pool" -- clergy to be fast-tracked to leadership positions -- has caused consternation among those accustomed to a system of quiet recommendations for preferment. Their unease has been compounded by bishops and deans being enrolled on MBA-style management courses.

"Bishops are well trained at one level -- being priests -- but at another level they aren't fit for purpose in terms of leadership and management," said Broadbent. "We're running multimillion-pound organisations which need CEO-type roles. Of course there's a spiritual dimension, but people are also called to be managers and leaders. It's difficult to run a diocese if you're just being learned; you need theological skills, pastoral care skills and management skills -- you need to be multi-talented."

But, he insisted, "money and business is not the model. We're still meant to be the church of Jesus Christ, but we just need to be more hard-headed and pragmatic about it."

We're in the last-chance saloon. Unless we do something in the next five or 10 years, we're shot, said Pete Broadbent, bishop of Willesden.

Some have expressed anxiety over talk of efficiency, success, targets and data. According to Percy, there are real concerns about "the uncritical use of business principles, which are mostly untested in the church and may not be the most appropriate fit". Under Welby's leadership, he said, the church was being run by people with an "executive managerial mindset". Welby is a former oil executive and many in his inner circle have business or banking backgrounds.

Some critics also claim that the Reform and Renewal programme is being driven by a zeal associated with Holy Trinity Brompton, the London church which pioneered the successful Alpha course to attract new blood to the C of E.

One of Percy's principal criticisms is a lack of consultation -- particularly among scholars -- over the measures. "The feeling in some quarters has been that the exclusion of intellectual voices has been deliberate. They're not wanted because they would slow the work down and cause lots of questions to be asked," he said. "If you can't value the past, you may then decide it needs to go or needs modification. If you've never taken the time to understand it in the first place, there are risks."

Linda Woodhead, professor of the sociology of religion at Lancaster University, shared the view that Reform and Renewal "true believers" were not sufficiently reflective. Evangelism with a business-model spin was not the solution. "Rather than stepping back and asking, 'why are we going down this path [of decline]', they think, 'let's preach the message louder, let's keep being more prophetic, and that will somehow attract people'," she said.

"Well, it won't. It will make the C of E increasingly into a little sect. It will never get back its broader social significance unless it can rethink its whole strategy. The church is in freefall and of course action needs to be taken, but their solution is much too unambitious."

She advocates increasing lay and community involvement, inclusivity and multi-functional use of church buildings.

The synod will debate Reform and Renewal after being inaugurated by the Queen on Tuesday. The previous synod strongly endorsed the programme, but most members of this synod are new, making the depth of support or criticism hard to predict.

The main danger, said Broadbent, was of the programme "dying the death of a thousand qualifications. But I hope not -- a lot of us have staked the future of the Church of England on this."

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